Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 2.576145 3.526402 4.880676 7.022556 1.046620e+01 16.060174 2.647911e+01
2025-03-09 1.701544 2.683037 4.375782 7.759269 1.509153e+01 32.528784 8.762232e+01
2025-03-16 1.187927 2.091660 3.911817 8.385598 2.137972e+01 68.978745 3.892629e+02
2025-03-23 0.888122 1.721753 3.653910 9.465396 3.267888e+01 181.450701 4.365228e+03
2025-03-30 0.677462 1.424286 3.380845 10.491213 5.019550e+01 581.709590 1.295718e+06
2025-04-06 0.496586 1.104430 2.842430 10.133062 6.417704e+01 1691.225824 NaN
2025-04-13 0.366700 0.850652 2.330179 9.293401 7.552719e+01 5231.211972 NaN
2025-04-20 0.298376 0.728770 2.159341 9.988543 1.170868e+02 75465.583522 NaN
2025-04-27 0.256021 0.660677 2.134586 11.743890 2.256590e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.223951 0.608955 2.142375 14.137575 5.044226e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.191728 0.542193 2.037160 15.601172 1.026565e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.158661 0.458786 1.790700 15.003330 1.520308e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.128859 0.378506 1.518066 13.585246 1.962903e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.112836 0.342413 1.454334 15.030295 5.488839e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.098853 0.308470 1.377504 16.242739 1.826065e+04 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.088553 0.284897 1.345459 18.513069 1.491939e+05 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.079376 0.262271 1.301860 20.693948 6.783948e+06 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.068739 0.229652 1.164089 19.703277 4.837782e+08 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.059133 0.198527 1.015735 17.686263 8.626386e+11 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.053668 0.183775 0.976630 19.137770 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-20 0.050153 0.176465 0.988860 23.034760 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-27 0.047262 0.170985 1.012720 28.561801 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-03 0.043691 0.161016 0.990084 31.994354 NaN NaN NaN